CMC Markets专栏: 乳价回暖,纽币能否止跌?

新西兰奶制品供给量新西兰恒天然乳业今日将其原奶采购价格由3.85纽币/千克提高至4.60纽币/千克。由于全球乳制品价格的下跌降低了生产成本，恒天然乳业作为世界最大的乳品出口商，截至7月31日，本年度税后净盈利达5.06亿纽币，与去年同期1.79亿纽币相比增长183%。由于乳制品价格长期低迷所导致的减产，自8月份以来，全球乳制品拍卖价格实现连续三次上涨，市场在经济供需与价格调整上真正发挥了其自身的调节作用。
 
乳制品价格的逐步回稳可能会给持续下滑的纽币带来一定的支撑作用，然而中国的货币贬值与全球经济形势仍然使得纽币难以在短期内摆脱低迷的现状。
 
技术形态上来看，纽币仍然形态较弱，很有可能继续下探，潜在下方目标可能在0.6080附近。但日线图上短期内可能出现一波回调，潜在目标0.6340附近。
 
日线图上看，纽币/美元在0.6440附近连续收到支持，昨日收一根柱体短小的下引线相比较长的竹子，类似止跌形态。日内可能受支持回调至保利加通道中轨附近的位置0.6340。

然而从月线图上看，纽币对美元距下方支持位置100.0%黄金延展线仍然有一段距离，由于上放空头力量仍看较强，纽币很有可能继续下探至此位置，潜在的目标可能在0.6080附近。

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Tina Teng在2015年6月份加入CMC Markets 担任销售与客户培训主管职务，负责亚太地区客户的培训和经济评论的撰写工作。她具有其独树一帜的市场视角和技术分析方法，认为金融市场是集历史，经济，政治，心理学与哲学于一身的学问。技术分析是市场基本面的可视性技术语言；而对于技术性语言的解读与对各国家经济、政治与历史背景分析的结合，与对投资心理状态的理解才会是对金融市场最全面的感知。自2012至2015年，Tina Teng曾任职金融经纪公司客户服务部经理为客户提供外汇差价合约方面的培训工作。此前，自2005年至2009年，她曾经在中国中央电视台广告经济中心任职，负责撰写中国广告经济方面的评论文章，造就了她对于中国经济现状和企业现状有深入的理解和敏锐的洞察力。